Mesoscale Discussion 1245
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0533 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

   Areas affected...part of west central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 406...

   Valid 102233Z - 102330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 406
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development near the higher
   terrain of Mexico, to the west of Del Rio, may pose increasing risk
   for strong surface gusts and perhaps large hail across the Texas
   side of the Rio Grande River by 7-9 PM CDT, if not earlier.  A new
   severe weather watch likely will be needed.

   DISCUSSION...One supercell propagating off the Davis Mountains has
   recently propagated eastward, to the east of the Terrell County
   Airport.  It appears to have undergone some weakening, perhaps due
   to the influence of inhibition associated with the warm elevated
   mixed-layer air, and low-level convergence appears focused across
   the higher terrain of Mexico to the west-northwest of Del Rio, where
   new thunderstorm activity is initiating and rapidly intensifying. 
   However, persistent 2-hourly surface pressure falls in excess of 2
   mb have been noted in the 21-22Z surface observations along the Rio
   Grande River, from Del Rio southward.  This is where strong heating
   has contributed to a modestly deep boundary-layer (including
   temperature/dew point spreads on the order of 30 F) with large CAPE
   around 3000 J/kg.  

   Even if the intensity of the northern cell is not maintained, there
   appears potential for considerable further upscale growth off the
   higher terrain of Mexico during the next couple of hours,
   accompanied by strengthening and consolidating outflow.  In the
   presence of modestly sheared but weak (around 10-15 kt) westerly
   ambient mean flow, this will tend to spread across the river, with
   potential for continuing thunderstorm development along its gust
   front.

   ..Kerr.. 06/10/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30320260 30470157 29940061 29640028 29010048 28590166
               28760248 29120275 29300260 29810244 30050256 30320260 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN