ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 102233 SPC MCD 102233 TXZ000-102330- Mesoscale Discussion 1245 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0533 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Areas affected...part of west central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 406... Valid 102233Z - 102330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 406 continues. SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development near the higher terrain of Mexico, to the west of Del Rio, may pose increasing risk for strong surface gusts and perhaps large hail across the Texas side of the Rio Grande River by 7-9 PM CDT, if not earlier. A new severe weather watch likely will be needed. DISCUSSION...One supercell propagating off the Davis Mountains has recently propagated eastward, to the east of the Terrell County Airport. It appears to have undergone some weakening, perhaps due to the influence of inhibition associated with the warm elevated mixed-layer air, and low-level convergence appears focused across the higher terrain of Mexico to the west-northwest of Del Rio, where new thunderstorm activity is initiating and rapidly intensifying. However, persistent 2-hourly surface pressure falls in excess of 2 mb have been noted in the 21-22Z surface observations along the Rio Grande River, from Del Rio southward. This is where strong heating has contributed to a modestly deep boundary-layer (including temperature/dew point spreads on the order of 30 F) with large CAPE around 3000 J/kg. Even if the intensity of the northern cell is not maintained, there appears potential for considerable further upscale growth off the higher terrain of Mexico during the next couple of hours, accompanied by strengthening and consolidating outflow. In the presence of modestly sheared but weak (around 10-15 kt) westerly ambient mean flow, this will tend to spread across the river, with potential for continuing thunderstorm development along its gust front. ..Kerr.. 06/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30320260 30470157 29940061 29640028 29010048 28590166 28760248 29120275 29300260 29810244 30050256 30320260 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN NNNN