ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102359 
SPC MCD 102359 
TXZ000-110200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1246
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Areas affected...parts of southeastern New Mexico and adjacent
western Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 406...

Valid 102359Z - 110200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 406
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts and some risk for hail may
continue with thunderstorms spreading across the Midland TX vicinity
during the next couple of hours, before diminishing.  A new severe
weather watch appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Convection emerging from the western slopes of the
Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains appears to have developed a
meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation, with modest mid-level rear
inflow and downdrafts to its south contributing to strong to,
perhaps, locally severe gusts.  Activity is embedded within modestly
sheared, but weak, westerly ambient mean flow on the order of 10 kt,
with the boundary layer along and south of the Pecos River largely
affected by outflow from downstream convection approaching the Del
Rio vicinity.  

To the north of the Pecos River, across the Midland vicinity, the
boundary-layer may still be characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000
J/kg, and perhaps could maintain vigorous thunderstorm development
on easterly low-level updraft inflow into the 00-02Z time frame. 
The risk for severe wind and hail appears unlikely to increase
appreciably further, and probably will tend to diminish with diurnal
boundary-layer cooling contributing to stabilizing  trends
downstream of the convection.

..Kerr.. 06/10/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...

LAT...LON   32720301 32950239 32500176 31780144 31150166 31100246
            31370322 31950292 32720301 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

NNNN