Mesoscale Discussion 1260
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0127 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

   Areas affected...central/northern Louisiana...southern
   Arkansas...western Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 121827Z - 122030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Marginal severe threat to continue through the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues near an MCV across
   eastern TX into portion so LA/AR. Largely, this has remained below
   severe limits. Echo tops have increased over the last hour or so
   with daytime heating and increasing instability across southern LA.
   Overall, flow remains weak except in association with the MCV where
   around 20-30 kts of deep layer shear are noted on the eastern
   periphery. Some organization may occur with deeper updrafts with
   potential for damaging wind and perhaps a tornado. This corridor
   will shift north and eastward into AR through time this afternoon.
   Overall, this risk will likely remain too localized for watch
   issuance.

   ..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/12/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   30599338 31889300 33029326 34289337 34579311 34379197
               34039141 33499071 32299018 30779102 30499168 30139225
               30219294 30599338 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH