Mesoscale Discussion 1267
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0608 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast WY/northeast CO into
   western/north-central NE and south-central SD

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410...

   Valid 122308Z - 130045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for primarily large hail and severe gusts will
   continue this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Two clusters of potentially severe storms are ongoing
   as of 23 UTC across WW 410. One is a backbuilding supercell cluster
   near the NE/SD border north of Valentine, NE, in the vicinity of a
   quasi-stationary surface front. Given the orientation of the
   instability gradient, this cluster may attempt to propagate
   southward with time, with continued backbuilding possible along its
   western flank. Moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 2000
   J/kg near/south of the front) and sufficient deep-layer shear will
   continue to support potential for hail in the 1.5-2.5 inch range,
   along with localized severe gusts. Also, while low-level flow is not
   particularly strong, a tornado cannot be ruled out, given the
   presence of supercell structures in the vicinity of the surface
   boundary. 

   Farther southwest, more loosely organized convection is ongoing near
   the NE/WY border. Moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to
   support an isolated hail threat in the short term. Consolidating
   outflows may eventually result in an outflow-driven cluster with a
   threat of severe gusts spreading eastward across the NE Panhandle
   later this evening.

   ..Dean.. 06/12/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41970508 42640468 43000225 43400117 43889995 44119924
               43929871 43329896 42479959 41630008 40270183 40360383
               40550415 40780437 41210483 41970508 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN