Mesoscale Discussion 1274
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast CO...Eastern NM...Western TX/OK
   Panhandles...TX South Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 132040Z - 132245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Several outflow-dominant thunderstorm clusters may develop
   across the region this afternoon/evening. Damaging gusts are the
   primary risk with this activity.

   DISCUSSION...Cumulus continues to build across the high terrain from
   southern CO through central NM, with a few instances of lightning
   observed as well. Despite large-scale ridging, thunderstorm coverage
   is expected to gradually increase amid persistent southwesterly flow
   aloft and related weak ascent. The airmass downstream across the
   southern High Plains is deeply mixed, with LCLs from 10 to 12 kft,
   and only weakly buoyant. As such, the expectation is for storms to
   quickly become outflow-dominant when the move off the terrain over
   the next few hours. Outflow interactions could lead to one or more
   forward-propagating clusters, any of which could produce strong to
   severe wind gusts. Severe coverage will likely remain isolated, and
   the need for a watch is uncertain. Overall convective trends will be
   monitored closely.

   Farther east across western portions of the TX South Plains, an area
   of deepening cumulus has been noted. Convective inhibition has
   largely eroded in this area, and there is some chance an isolated
   storm develops. However, given the significant dry air present,
   there is a low-probability for sustained deep convection in the
   near-term.

   ..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/13/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   37980486 38430440 38260366 37730308 36660263 33970226
               32680364 32500536 34200528 35980502 37980486 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN