Mesoscale Discussion 1278
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0802 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

   Areas affected...parts of western Nebraska...northeast
   Colorado...and northwest Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 140102Z - 140200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Clusters of storms may produce a threat for severe gusts
   and perhaps some large hail. A watch downstream of WW412 may be
   needed.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is ongoing across parts of western Nebraska,
   which has produced occasional severe/damaging gusts and large hail.
   Ahead of the convection, surface mixing ratios are near 15 g/kg per
   mesoanalysis, and short-term model guidance suggests a seasonably
   modest nocturnal low-level jet ought to reinforce convection despite
   the loss of daytime heating. Wave clouds in visible satellite
   suggests some lingering surface stability across parts of central
   Nebraska. However, based on the 21Z LBF RAOB with 7-8 C/km low-level
   lapse rates, this can easily be overcome by a well-developed cold
   pool. These suggest that damaging winds will be the primary threat
   with these storms. With the more isolated cells, some large hail is
   possible, though storms are expected to continue to cluster with
   time, so this may limit the longevity of the hail threat.
   Additionally, the duration of the severe threat in the northern part
   of this region is uncertain, with convection approaching stable air
   north of a stationary boundary.

   ..Supinie/Smith.. 06/14/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41100322 42810335 43200350 43320300 43220230 42930106
               42150053 40620005 39120027 38360156 38490289 39040336
               41100322 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN