Mesoscale Discussion 1281
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1132 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

   Areas affected...Southwest NE into western KS and parts of eastern
   CO

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413...

   Valid 140432Z - 140600Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Some severe threat could persist into the early overnight.

   DISCUSSION...A loosely organized storm cluster recently produced a
   57 kt gust in Ogalalla, NE. Moderate downstream buoyancy and
   modestly favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support some
   severe-wind threat in the short term as this system moves across
   southwest NE and extreme northwest KS. The longevity of the severe
   threat is uncertain due to increasing MLCINH with time. Some
   backbuilding along the trailing outflow also remains possible into
   far northeast CO. 

   Farther south, a storm cluster has shown some signs of
   intensification across southeast CO. With strong downstream buoyancy
   (MLCAPE greater than 3000 J/kg) and the nocturnal low-level jet
   forecast to become focused into southwest KS overnight, there is
   some potential for this cluster to intensify with time, and
   potentially pose some threat for severe wind and hail. However, this
   potential remains uncertain due to the competing influences of
   increasing CINH and generally modest deep-layer flow/shear. Trends
   will be monitored for an uptick in severe potential and the need for
   watch issuance downstream of this cluster.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 06/14/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37570334 38230363 38520337 38820257 39360242 40020242
               42060181 42010047 40739975 39789970 39119980 38309994
               37680021 37310061 37090192 37570334 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN