Mesoscale Discussion 1286
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0157 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming...northern Colorado...and portions
   of eastern Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141857Z - 142030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed this afternoon
   and evening across portions of the Central High Plains in
   anticipation of severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
   damaging winds.

   DISCUSSION...While surface mesoanalsyis indicates lingering
   convective inhibition across portions of the Colorado and Wyoming
   High Plains, heating across the higher terrain has resulted in
   surface temperatures reaching the lower 80s F with several attempts
   at thunderstorm initiation. As the boundary layer continues to mix
   and destabilize, the expectation is that storms will move from the
   higher terrain into the high plains of Colorado and Wyoming where
   better mixing ratios of 12-13 g/kg are present. Relatively meager
   deep-layer shear of 20-30 kts will limit overall convective
   organization, but steep mid-level lapse rates and deep, well-mixed
   boundary layer profiles will support a large hail and damaging wind
   threat -- especially with any local convective organization into
   bowing segments.

   ..Halbert/Thompson.. 06/14/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   44980477 44990625 44980705 44970750 44110697 43250641
               42660597 41940547 41220521 40520503 39830478 39750417
               39760333 39830244 39990203 40270206 42520290 44970413
               44980477 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN