ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 141959 SPC MCD 141959 OKZ000-142200- Mesoscale Discussion 1287 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Areas affected...Parts of western/southwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141959Z - 142200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Observational trends suggest some potential for storm development in western/southwestern Oklahoma. While initiation is still not certain, all severe hazards would be possible. Trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...With the stronger convection moving out of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, the outflow across central Oklahoma has only been weakly reinforced through the afternoon. Notable airmass recovery has occurred along the southwestern/western flank of this outflow. Over the past hour or so, cumulus have continued to deepen in parts of southwest and western Oklahoma. Given weak forcing aloft, it is not clear parcels will be able to remain in the zone of ascent long enough to reach their LFC. However, if initiation occurs, the environment would support severe storms. Mid-level winds are enhanced on the southwestern flank of an MCV near the KS/OK border, promoting around 30 kts of effective shear. Storms would likely be supercellular. Large hail (potentially to around 2 inches) and severe winds would be possible. Significant hail would likely be isolated given fairly weak upper-level winds. Given the backed southeasterly surface winds and favorable storm mode, a tornado would also be possible. Forecast soundings and the KTLX VAD suggest sufficient low-level SRH. Given the uncertainties in this scenario, a watch is not currently expected in the short term. However, one would be possible should confidence in initiation increase. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 34209789 34359854 34769926 35409956 35959953 35989948 36089926 35449851 34759780 34469764 34209789 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN NNNN