Mesoscale Discussion 1298
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0446 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

   Areas affected...central into western/southern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417...

   Valid 150946Z - 151145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Some risk for strong to severe gusts and severe hail
   probably will continue beyond daybreak with thunderstorms developing
   into and across parts of western through southern Oklahoma. 
   However, it is not clear that an additional severe weather watch
   will be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Within a generally weak large-scale flow regime,
   convectively augmented mid-level troughing continues to slowly dig
   south-southeastward across parts of southeastern Kansas and eastern
   Oklahoma.  Aided by persistent vigorous thunderstorm development,
   supported by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection above the western
   flank of a composite outflow, the outflow has been slowly spreading
   west-southwestward across the Interstate 35 corridor of north
   central Oklahoma.  This is likely to continue into
   western/southwestern Oklahoma through and beyond daybreak.

   As the nocturnal low-level jet weakens, forcing to overcome
   mid-level inhibition and maintain convective development in the
   presence of moderate potential instability remains unclear.  It is
   possible that lift along an intersecting outflow emerging the Texas
   Panhandle could maintain a corridor of vigorous thunderstorm
   development, but this is not certain based on model output.  

   Regardless, barring more substantive cold pool strengthening with
   the Texas Panhandle cluster than currently appears probable, there
   is little to suggest potential for a substantive increase in severe
   weather into mid morning.  However, a couple of locally strong to
   severe gusts remain possible, along with some continuing risk for
   severe hail in stronger cells.

   ..Kerr.. 06/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36430004 36139857 35279811 34699680 33919690 34479924
               35570028 36430004 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH