Mesoscale Discussion 1324
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1047 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

   Areas affected...western/central Nebraska southward into
   western/central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424...

   Valid 170347Z - 170545Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to develop and expand in coverage
   across the Central Plains this evening. Strong instability and shear
   will continue to support a severe threat into the overnight hours.
   An extension in space/time of existing Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   #424, a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch, or both will likely be
   needed.

   DISCUSSION...A complex thunderstorm evolution is underway across
   much of central and southern Nebraska this evening. There have been
   numerous reports of measured severe-magnitude winds -- some greater
   than 75 mph -- across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #424,
   despite the coherent upscale growth into a linear MCS. Interrogation
   of local observations and radar data indicates that some, but not
   all, of these have been associated with heat bursts. 

   Repeated initiation across Hayes County has yielded a northward
   expanding arc of additional thunderstorms, perhaps associated with
   thunderstorm outflows. The result has been the development of
   numerous thunderstorms across the region, without a coherent,
   large-scale direction of movement. Despite the number of storms,
   instability remains quite high across western, central, and southern
   Nebraska, with most-unstable CAPE values still in excess of 3500
   J/kg across much of the area. Couple this with deep-layer shear
   values remain in excess of 40 knots an increasing low-level jet,
   severe thunderstorms should continue across portions of Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch #424 past the 05 UTC expiration.

   Expectations continue to be that with time the modified surface
   front/congealed cold pools should begin to move southward taking
   with it the bulk of the severe threat. Recent radar trends suggest
   this may be occurring as new thunderstorm updrafts are developing 
   across Thomas, Sheridan, and Graham Counties in northwest Kansas.

   With the anticipated southward development in Kansas and the
   repeated initiation across portions of western/central Nebraska some
   combination of a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch and local extensions
   in space/time of existing Severe Thunderstorm Watch #424 will be
   needed across the Central Plains this evening. Coordination of these
   details will be finalized in the next hour.

   ..Marsh.. 06/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   41710167 41469753 38149582 38210163 41710167 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN