Mesoscale Discussion 1327
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0406 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

   Areas affected...parts of south central Kansas...north
   central/northeastern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425...

   Valid 170906Z - 171100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts will probably continue into
   daybreak, with a cluster of thunderstorms overspreading the central
   Kansas and Oklahoma state border vicinity. Beyond that, the cluster
   of storms is expected to weaken, but how fast remains unclear.

   DISCUSSION...A compact but still strong surface cold pool, which
   intensified across the Hays KS vicinity around 06-07Z (including
   2-hourly surface pressure rises in excess of 6 mb), accelerated
   southeasterly propagation to 35-40 kt shortly thereafter.  This is
   generally being maintained across and southwest of the Wichita KS
   vicinity, and, at its current movement, could approach the Tulsa,
   Chandler and Enid OK vicinities by around 12Z.  However, the extent
   to which it maintains intensity remains unclear, as the southerly
   low-level jet across the high plains likely undergoes at least some
   diurnal weakening.  Mid-level warming (around 700 mb) is also
   ongoing across much of the central and southern Great Plains, which
   will tend to suppress convective development, once forcing for
   ascent associated with low-level warm advection weakens.  However,
   the risk for strong to severe wind gusts will probably continue, as
   long as convection is able to maintain the vigorous cold pool.

   ..Kerr.. 06/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37629794 38119698 37399590 36619596 36339805 37379888
               37629794 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN