Mesoscale Discussion 1339
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0813 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of southern KS...northern OK...far southwest
   MO...and far northwest AR

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 429...

   Valid 180113Z - 180315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 429 continues.

   SUMMARY...A general increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected
   across the area during the next several hours. One or more MCSs may
   evolve out of this activity, posing a risk of scattered severe wind
   gusts. A new watch will likely be issued before 03Z to replace
   Tornado Watch 429.

   DISCUSSION...A persistent upscale-growing supercell cluster
   continues tracking east-southeastward along the KS/OK border --
   along the immediate cool side of a large-scale outflow boundary
   extending across northern OK. These storms should continue moving
   along a related east/west-oriented instability gradient, where
   around 60 kt of 0-6 km shear (per nearby VWP) and ample low-level
   hodograph curvature will continue to support large hail, severe wind
   gusts, and possibly an embedded tornado. Farther west, an intense
   semi-discrete supercell is moving southeastward over far northwest
   OK and the northeastern TX Panhandle. Very strong surface-based
   instability and a large clockwise-curved hodograph (around 300 m2/s2
   effective SRH) will continue to favor a risk of tornadoes (some
   possibly strong) and large hail in the near-term. 

   Over the next several hours, a general increase in thunderstorm
   coverage is expected along outflow boundaries, as a midlevel wave
   (evident in water-vapor imagery) moves into the region. While
   overall convective evolution is uncertain, a strongly unstable air
   mass remains in place along/south of the large-scale outflow
   boundary in northern OK/southern KS (see OUN 00Z sounding). This,
   combined with the increasing large-scale ascent and a focused
   low-level jet, should support the development of one or more
   organized MCSs -- capable of producing scattered severe wind gusts.
   A new watch will likely be issued prior to the expiration of Tornado
   Watch 429 at 03Z.

   ..Weinman/Mosier.. 06/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35389951 35570005 35890028 36310030 36810019 37549949
               37789888 38089768 38159659 37979525 37549427 37009392
               36499412 36089458 35699528 35459663 35389951 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN