Mesoscale Discussion 1354
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0524 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

   Areas affected...southeastern Lower Michigan into western and
   central Ohio

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436...437...

   Valid 182224Z - 190000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436, 437
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe gusts should continue with an ongoing, mature MCS
   for several more hours. A few instances of marginally severe hail
   and perhaps a tornado, also remain possible.

   DISCUSSION...A mature QLCS, with a history of widespread severe
   gusts, continues to progress eastward amid a moderately unstable
   airmass, characterized by over 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Boundary layer
   lapse rates remain in the 7-7.5 C/km range over 300 km ahead of the
   line (to the OH/PA border). Since nocturnal cooling will not set in
   for at least a few more hours, several more strong to severe gusts
   are likely. A couple instances of marginally severe hail are also
   possible, and a QLCS tornado cannot be ruled out.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...

   LAT...LON   38648511 40708487 41868469 42418490 42948475 43208445
               43218371 42608318 41508279 40508263 39268305 38748318
               38528367 38518447 38648511 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN