Mesoscale Discussion 1357
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0818 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania
   and western West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440...

   Valid 190118Z - 190245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging gusts remain a concern with the advancing squall
   line, with a few severe gusts still possible, especially with the
   apex of the line.

   DISCUSSION...A QLCS continues to advance eastward with a history of
   strong to severe wind gusts, particularly with the apex of a bowing
   segment entering the Cleveland metropolitan area. The squall line
   continues to advance eastward amid a warm boundary layer
   (characterized by 80 F surface temperatures beneath 6+ C/km
   low-level lapse rates). Buoyancy is waning, suggesting that an
   overall decrease in severe potential is expected. However, in the
   near term, strong to severe wind gusts remain a threat. The best
   chance for additional severe gusts remain with the apex of a bowing
   segment within the line, which is traversing the Lake Erie
   shoreline. Here, 40 kts of effective bulk shear exists, with shear
   vectors oriented roughly normal to the bowing line.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   38658284 40008221 41588150 41858113 42008044 41568000
               40777975 39747995 38738064 38308113 38218161 38158215
               38238259 38658284 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH