Mesoscale Discussion 1360
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1108 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

   Areas affected...portions of central Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190408Z - 190545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple instances of marginally severe hail may occur
   over the next couple of hours. A WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...An embedded 500 mb impulse is overspreading MO,
   contributing to locally higher deep-layer shear (e.g. 40+ kts of
   effective bulk shear per 03Z mesoanalysis), as well as deep-layer
   ascent. As such, a few transient supercells have developed, with
   MRMS mosaic radar data suggesting that some of these storms are
   producing hail that is approaching severe limits. Mid-level lapse
   rates are not particularly steep, as shown by the 00Z SGF observed
   soundings, which depicts near 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop a
   stabilizing boundary layer. While an instance or two of 1+ inch
   diameter hail may be observed, the aforementioned tall/thin CAPE
   (with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) and modest deep-layer shear suggest
   that severe hail should be overall isolated. As such, a WW issuance
   is not expected.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   37959434 38589392 38979245 38769109 38219066 37589103
               37339210 37379301 37569393 37959434 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN