Mesoscale Discussion 1362
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0255 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

   Areas affected...parts of central Arkansas...southwestern
   Tennessee...northern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190755Z - 190900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development, accompanied by potential to
   produce locally strong to severe surface gusts, may continue through
   daybreak across parts of the Mid South, near the Greater Memphis
   vicinity.

   DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development remains focused near
   the southern to southwestern periphery of mid-level troughing,
   slowly turning to the east of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley. 
   This may be supported by forcing for ascent downstream of a still
   digging embedded smaller-scale perturbation, largely associated with
   lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northeastern
   periphery of an increasingly suppressed, remnant plume of elevated
   mixed-layer air emanating from the Great Plains.

   Beneath modestly sheared, 30+ kt westerly to northwesterly
   deep-layer mean flow, activity is tending to propagate southeastward
   across the Mid South vicinity, aided by south to southwesterly
   near-surface updraft inflow emanating from a seasonably moist
   boundary beneath the steeper mid-level lapse rates across north
   central Arkansas, toward western Tennessee/northwestern Mississippi.


   Even with convection now largely rooted above convective outflow,
   due to the high moisture content in lower/mid-levels (including
   low/mid 70s surface dew points and precipitable water of 1.75-2
   inches), near-surface lapse rates within the outflow, though weak,
   may not be appreciably more stable than ahead of it.  Perhaps aided
   by the downward transfer of momentum associated with a residual
   30-35 kt 850 mb jet (slowly veering from westerly to
   west-northwesterly across northeastern Arkansas, western Tennessee
   and northwestern Mississippi), aided by heavy precipitation loading
   in downdrafts, persistent thunderstorm development may continue to
   pose a risk for strong to severe surface gusts through daybreak.

   ..Kerr.. 06/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34829084 34579036 34548963 34488902 34698836 35218815
               35608890 35808954 36149070 35709163 35389167 34829084 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN