Mesoscale Discussion 1376
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0800 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

   Areas affected...Far southeast Virginia into northeast North
   Carolina

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444...

   Valid 200100Z - 200300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Some severe threat will persist across far southeast
   Virginia and into northeast North Carolina through 03 UTC as a line
   of storms continues to push east.

   DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues to push east along
   and just south of the VA/NC border. The northern segment of this
   line remains favorably oriented nearly orthogonal to low-level shear
   vectors per regional VWP observations and the recent 00 UTC MHX
   sounding, which will help maintain some degree of storm
   organization. The southward propagation of an outflow boundary out
   of southeast VA will likely shunt the focus for additional robust
   convective development within the line into far southeast
   VA/northeast NC through 03 UTC. Although velocity imagery from KAKQ
   has shown a weakening wind signal over the past half hour, GOES IR
   imagery continues to show deep/robust updraft development, and the
   rich low-level moisture in place should help modulate the influence
   of nocturnal cooling/stabilization to some degree. Consequently, an
   intensification of low-level winds, and perhaps some hail threat,
   may materialize downstream.

   Further southwest, the southern portion of the line has become
   outflow dominant with deep convection well displaced behind the
   outflow boundary. Despite this trend, the buoyant environment
   sampled by the MHX sounding may continue to support robust, though
   somewhat transient, updrafts with an attendant risk of sporadic hail
   and periodic strong/severe downbursts.

   ..Moore.. 06/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   35777904 36197770 36547733 36857700 37027666 37067625
               37057605 36727584 36297574 35917560 35557580 35377603
               35227630 35147665 35127716 35307855 35437890 35607907
               35777904 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN