Mesoscale Discussion 1383
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0324 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

   Areas affected...far eastern Montana and northwest South Dakota into
   central North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 202024Z - 202230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to initiate over southeast Montana by
   22Z, eventually organizing into a cluster or MCS as it travels into
   ND. Significant damaging gusts as well as large hail are forecast.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating continues over the region as low
   pressure deepens from southeast MT into western SD. Moist low-level
   trajectories extend from the eastern Dakotas westward (north of the
   low) and into far eastern MT, where visible imagery indicates
   increase CU fields.

   Meanwhile, an impressive surge of heated air is spreading into the
   area from the southwest, with many sites seeing a large jump in
   temperatures and wind speeds. While some warming aloft is indicated
   as well, the continued westward influx of moisture and surface
   heating will result in an uncapped air mass over the High Plains,
   with initiation likely by late afternoon.

   Indications are that convection over southeast MT will grow over the
   next few hours, with cells producing hail and gusty winds. With
   time, this activity should develop into a severe MCS, with
   increasing threat of significant wind gusts as well as continued
   threat of hail. As such, a watch will likely be needed soon.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 06/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   45240386 45330514 45750548 46240538 46520474 46800280
               47770036 47779970 47499932 47059911 46359928 45880017
               45430155 45260277 45240386 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN