ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 202024 
SPC MCD 202024 
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-202230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1383
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Areas affected...far eastern Montana and northwest South Dakota into
central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 202024Z - 202230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to initiate over southeast Montana by
22Z, eventually organizing into a cluster or MCS as it travels into
ND. Significant damaging gusts as well as large hail are forecast.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating continues over the region as low
pressure deepens from southeast MT into western SD. Moist low-level
trajectories extend from the eastern Dakotas westward (north of the
low) and into far eastern MT, where visible imagery indicates
increase CU fields.

Meanwhile, an impressive surge of heated air is spreading into the
area from the southwest, with many sites seeing a large jump in
temperatures and wind speeds. While some warming aloft is indicated
as well, the continued westward influx of moisture and surface
heating will result in an uncapped air mass over the High Plains,
with initiation likely by late afternoon.

Indications are that convection over southeast MT will grow over the
next few hours, with cells producing hail and gusty winds. With
time, this activity should develop into a severe MCS, with
increasing threat of significant wind gusts as well as continued
threat of hail. As such, a watch will likely be needed soon.

..Jewell/Hart.. 06/20/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON   45240386 45330514 45750548 46240538 46520474 46800280
            47770036 47779970 47499932 47059911 46359928 45880017
            45430155 45260277 45240386 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

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