Mesoscale Discussion 1389
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1004 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

   Areas affected...portions of central North Dakota

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 448...

   Valid 210304Z - 210430Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 448 continues.

   SUMMARY...A derecho should continue over the next few hours. 75-100
   mph winds remain a concern, and a few mesovortex-generated tornadoes
   are possible.

   DISCUSSION...A mature, intense bow echo is rapidly propagating
   eastward across central ND at around 70 kts, and is traversing a
   baroclinic boundary, where over 4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 60-80 kts of
   effective bulk shear is present. Furthermore, these shear vectors
   are oriented normal to the bow echo. Several measured 75-100 mph
   gusts have occurred, and given the preceding ambient conditions and
   baroclinic boundary, this bow echo will likely continue producing
   significant-severe gusts over the next few hours. A derecho is in
   progress, so 60+ mph winds should also be occurring on a more
   widespread basis, as suggested by many surface observations. The
   best chance for scattered significant-severe gusts will be in close
   proximity to mesovortices, specifically where mesovortex winds align
   with the rear-inflow jet. A few tornadoes also cannot be ruled out
   with the mesovortices.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46389845 46149901 46040034 46120087 46290087 46610063
               46870055 47180077 47610056 47780014 47659877 47309829
               46879827 46389845 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...95-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN