Mesoscale Discussion 1393
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

   Areas affected...portions of northern MN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449...

   Valid 210553Z - 210730Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential increasing across northern MN.

   DISCUSSION...A new, intense bow is developing across northwest MN as
   a series of supercells have merged and strong rear-inflow (noted in
   the KMVX VWP data) from the west spreads across the region in tandem
   with a 45+ kt low-level jet. This bowing segment, currently over
   Beltrami and Hubbard Counties is expected to develop east along the
   warm front draped west to east across northern MN. While low-level
   inhibition is quite strong due to nocturnal stabilization of the
   near-surface, moderate to strong instability, steep lapse rates, and
   a very favorable shear parameter space will likely maintain this
   organized bowing structure for at least a couple of hours. An
   attendant risk for 75+ mph gusts will accompany this bowing segment,
   with so potential from a tornado or two near the apex. Additional
   warm advection storms developing ahead of this bow also will pose a
   risk for large hail into northeast MN.

   ..Leitman.. 06/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

   LAT...LON   47759533 47939456 47959338 47869263 47729206 47489182
               47179198 46939251 46889342 46909459 47039517 47119544
               47759533 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN