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Mesoscale Discussion 1416
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MD 1416 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1416
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

   Areas affected...parts of northeastern Iowa through central and
   northeastern Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231729Z - 232000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Gradually intensifying thunderstorm activity may pose
   increasing potential for a few strong downbursts through 3-5 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Destabilization, within a pre-frontal boundary-layer
   characterized by seasonably high moisture content (including surface
   dew points in excess of 70F), is supporting a gradual increase in
   convective development, particularly within a small cluster near La
   Cross WI.  This is occurring as insolation contributes to erosion of
   a relatively warm capping layer based around 700 mb, perhaps aided
   by forcing for ascent associated with one or two sub-synoptic
   mid/upper perturbations migrating around the northwestern periphery
   of the prominent mid-level high centered near the southern
   Appalachians.

   With continuing boundary-layer warming and weakening of inhibition,
   a further increase in thunderstorm development seems likely to
   gradually continue during the next few hours.  Updraft inflow
   characterized by CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, in the presence of
   modestly sheared west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, weakening,
   but still in excess of 30 kt, may slowly contribute to increasing
   intensity and organization.  Although the development of  any
   appreciable convectively generated surface cold pool will probably
   be slow due the moist nature of the low-level levels, and modest
   lapse rates, precipitation loading in stronger convection may
   increasingly pose the risk for a few strong downbursts through
   20-22Z.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 06/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43519239 44889036 45658874 45018674 44138837 43379009
               42459249 42699322 43519239 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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Page last modified: June 26, 2025
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