Mesoscale Discussion 1420
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0336 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

   Areas affected...parts of southern/eastern Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455...

   Valid 232036Z - 232230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Another small, organized cluster of storms posing a risk
   for damaging wind gusts may evolve east of La Crosse toward the
   Oshkosh vicinity through 5-7 PM CDT, along outflow trailing the lead
   cluster now spreading south through southeast of Green Bay.

   DISCUSSION...One small, organized convective cluster, with an
   embedded meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation, has already evolved
   and produced a narrow corridor of severe and/or damaging gusts near
   and east of the Wisconsin Rapids area.  This may continue near/south
   and southeast of the Green Bay vicinity, before diminishing while
   spreading into Lake Michigan within the next hour or so.

   Meanwhile, thunderstorm activity now forming upstream may undergo a
   similar evolution along the trailing outflow from the lead cluster, 
   east of La Crosse toward the Oshkosh vicinity during the next couple
   of hours. Inhibition has become increasingly negligible in the
   presence of peak heating, with latest mesoanalysis indicating CAPE
   on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg, in the presence of at least modest
   shear beneath 40+ kt westerly 500 mb flow.

   ..Kerr.. 06/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

   LAT...LON   43569134 43599033 44238913 44518748 43888731 43328847
               42868978 42769077 42999141 43569134 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN