Mesoscale Discussion 1434
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1222 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern WV into parts of MD...VA...DC...and far
   south-central PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251722Z - 251915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Localized damaging wind is possible this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered storm development is underway early
   this afternoon from the eastern WV Panhandle into northern VA/MD.
   Midlevel lapse rates are notably weaker compared to areas farther
   south. However, strong heating of a richly moist airmass has allowed
   MLCAPE to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Storm organization
   will be limited by weak deep-layer flow/shear, though weak
   unidirectional west-northwesterly flow may allow for small
   southeastward-moving clusters if sufficient outflow consolidation
   can occur. Even in the absence of any organized clustering, very
   steep low-level lapse rates will result in potential for localized
   damaging downburst/outflow winds through the afternoon.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   39457904 40017707 39807619 39127615 38517617 37807636
               36787907 37997935 38737942 39097946 39457904 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN