Mesoscale Discussion 1456
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0107 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

   Areas affected...Southern lower MI into parts of IN/OH...western
   PA...northern WV

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 261807Z - 262000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms with localized damaging winds are possible this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple storm clusters are ongoing early this
   afternoon across southern lower MI, with other recent development
   into northeast OH and northern IN. The southern lower MI storms are
   accompanied by gradually expanding outflow, which will eventually
   move into parts of northeast IN and northern OH. Additional storm
   development may occur near this outflow this afternoon as it spreads
   east-southeastward. Deep-layer shear is weak, but modest
   west-northwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer may support
   occasional loosely organized clusters. A 44 kt gust was recently
   observed in Toledo, OH, and strong buoyancy and steep low-level
   lapse rates will continue to support a threat of strong gusts and
   localized damaging wind through the afternoon. 

   Farther south, deep-layer shear is even weaker into parts of central
   IN, central/southern OH, and southwest PA. However, a favorable
   downburst environment is in place across this region, with strong
   buoyancy, relatively large PW, and steepening low-level lapse rates.
   A threat for locally damaging wind will accompany the strongest
   storms.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...
   IND...LOT...

   LAT...LON   41758648 42148510 42108336 41828092 41758020 41647955
               41337900 40677904 40107947 39368101 38488243 39118562
               40788700 41048703 41368686 41758648 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH