Mesoscale Discussion 1443
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

   Areas affected...Central South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459...

   Valid 252219Z - 260015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging/severe winds is expected to
   increase over the next couple of hours across central South Carolina
   as thunderstorm clusters begin to merge within a very unstable
   environment.

   DISCUSSION...Two convective clusters have now become apparent over
   the Carolinas. The first, propagating south/southwest closer to the
   Carolina coast, appears to be well-balanced with new, deep updrafts
   developing along the leading edge of a consolidating cold pool. To
   the west, a secondary cluster is moving south off of the higher
   terrain and into deeper low-level moisture. Despite being outflow
   dominant, GOES 1-minute imagery shows robust convection erupting on
   the immediate cool side of the outflow boundary, hinting that this
   cluster may attain a more balanced updraft/downdraft convergence
   zone in the near future as additional cells develop along the
   leading edge of the cold pool. 

   Both of these clusters are propagating into an environment
   characterized by MLCAPE values upwards of 3500 J/kg, and while some
   anvil shading is occurring immediately ahead of the clusters, the
   lack of widespread boundary-layer cumulus and dewpoints falling into
   the upper 60s across central SC suggests a dry, deeply mixing
   environment is downstream of both clusters. These low-level
   thermodynamic conditions should be very favorable for downdraft
   accelerations and damaging to severe downburst winds. The severe
   threat may be maximized where the two clusters merge in the coming
   1-2 hours, and potentially along a subtle low-level confluence zone
   draped across the state.

   ..Moore.. 06/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34868140 34558215 34308229 34108223 33748189 33518165
               33308131 33218080 33298011 33407968 33637949 33947950
               34217975 34838085 34908122 34868140 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN