SPC AC 041735

   Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1135 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
   TEXAS TO SOUTHERN KANSAS...

   CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe storms may develop on Thursday evening and persist
   into early morning Friday from northwest Texas to southern Kansas. A
   few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail could occur.

   ...Synopsis...
   A low-amplitude shortwave trough will quickly progress from the
   Mid-MS Valley to the Northeast. A broad positive-tilt upper trough
   will shift more slowly eastward across the West, reaching the
   northern High Plains to Four Corners by early Friday. Downstream lee
   cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO through Thursday afternoon.
   A warm front will arc southeast and eventually east from this
   cyclone. A separate front will be oriented to the northeast and
   north, accelerating southeast over the northern Great Plains
   Thursday night. The dryline should only mix slightly east of eastern
   NM into far western parts of TX.

   ...Southern to central Great Plains...
   Deepening lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO through the day will
   yield increasing low-level moisture return beneath a pronounced EML
   from TX to KS. Initial severe-storm concern will develop in the late
   afternoon to early evening in the TX Panhandle/northwest TX vicinity
   and adjacent western OK. Guidance differs markedly with the degree
   of thunderstorm development along the surface warm front as it
   advances north. The HRRR/RRFS and MPAS runs are much more aggressive
   compared to the NAM-Nest and NSSL-ARW cores with sustained storms.
   Differential insolation/boundary-layer heating across the front and
   weak mid-level height falls may be adequate for storms ahead of the
   effective front/dryline intersection in the western TX Panhandle.
   Should sustained development occur, a strengthening nocturnal
   low-level jet will maintain an influx of low 60s surface dew points
   and surface-based instability into Thursday night.

   The initial setup would favor discrete supercells capable of large
   hail and at least a couple tornadoes amid a supercell wind profile
   and steep mid-level lapse rates. It is plausible that a
   longer-track/strong supercell or two could become established to the
   northeast through the evening into the early overnight in parts of
   western to north-central OK. However, upscale growth into a linear
   cluster with embedded supercells seems more probable into the
   overnight, capable of producing all hazards. But with some weakening
   of near-surface lapse rates anticipated, confidence is low on the
   degree of significant severe potential with northeastward extent. 

   Elevated thunderstorms appear likely to develop farther north in the
   southwest/central NE vicinity and in a broader swath across the
   Mid-MO Valley overnight. Isolated severe hail and strong gusts could
   briefly accompany the more robust storms.

   ..Grams.. 03/04/2026

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