Mesoscale Discussion 1388
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0845 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

   Areas affected...portions of central North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447...

   Valid 210145Z - 210215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A couple of focused, but destructive burst-swaths are
   possible with the apex of a bow-echo with embedded mesovortices.
   Gusts could exceed 100 mph, especially if the two ongoing burst
   swaths merge.

   DISCUSSION...KBIS NEXRAD data shows intense inbound velocities at
   the bow-echo apex, likely driven by mesovortices. In Morton County,
   ND, there is evidence of rear-inflow jet winds coinciding with the
   rotational component of flow around a leading-line/system-scale
   mesovortex, and it is here where the most intense winds may occur.
   Inbound velocities are approaching 110 kts about 2000 ft above the
   ground, and a 94 mph measured gust had occurred earlier. Current
   thinking is that two ongoing burst swaths in this area may merge.
   Should this occur, gusts could briefly exceed 100 mph. Furthermore,
   if any mesovortex circulations can intensify, a tornado is also
   possible.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46970197 47020123 46930083 46670067 46490091 46480119
               46570169 46970197 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...95-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN