Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 447
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
250 PM MDT Fri Jun 20 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Montana
Southwest North Dakota
Northwest South Dakota
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until
900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop this
afternoon over southeast Montana and track eastward through the
early evening. Supercells capable of very large hail and damaging
winds appear to be the main concern. A tornado or two is also
possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north
northwest of Broadus MT to 85 miles northeast of Lemmon SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Hart
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 447 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD 202050Z - 210300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40NNW 4BQ/BROADUS MT/ - 85NE Y22/LEMMON SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /27SSE MLS - 10W BIS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
LAT...LON 46830572 47660090 45920090 45100572
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 447 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 447
VALID 210245Z - 210300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E Y22 TO
25 SW BIS TO 15 W N60.
WW 447 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210300Z.
..SQUITIERI..06/21/25
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC059-065-085-210300-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MORTON OLIVER SIOUX
$$
SDC031-210300-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CORSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 447
VALID 210145Z - 210240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N RAP TO
30 N Y22 TO 40 WNW N60.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387
..MOORE..06/21/25
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC037-057-059-065-085-210240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRANT MERCER MORTON
OLIVER SIOUX
$$
SDC031-105-210240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CORSON PERKINS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 447
VALID 210050Z - 210140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE 2WX
TO 35 NNE 2WX TO 45 N DIK.
..SQUITIERI..06/21/25
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-025-037-041-057-059-065-085-089-210140-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS DUNN GRANT
HETTINGER MERCER MORTON
OLIVER SIOUX STARK
$$
SDC031-063-105-210140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CORSON HARDING PERKINS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 447
VALID 202320Z - 210040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE 4BQ
TO 25 WSW BHK TO 20 E GDV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1384
..SQUITIERI..06/20/25
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-025-109-210040-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER FALLON WIBAUX
$$
NDC001-007-011-025-033-037-041-057-059-065-085-087-089-210040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN
DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT
HETTINGER MERCER MORTON
OLIVER SIOUX SLOPE
STARK
$$
SDC031-063-105-210040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CORSON HARDING PERKINS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (60%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.