SPC AC 261609

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

   Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO
   THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this
   afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota,
   and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from
   the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians.

   ...Upper Midwest...
   A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving
   eastward.  Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered
   thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and
   along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track
   southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE
   values will be 2000-3000 J/kg.  Steep low-level lapse rates will
   promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward
   through early evening.

   From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed
   low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be
   favorable for a few discrete supercells.  Similar to yesterday
   (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few
   tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening.

   ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians...
   Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the
   western Carolinas and north GA.  This corridor will be hot/humid
   again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms.  Winds aloft are
   weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes.  However,
   steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again
   result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the
   afternoon and early evening.  Despite the expected weak winds aloft,
   will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of
   model guidance supporting the threat.

   ..Hart/Thornton.. 06/26/2025

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