SPC AC 260530

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms producing large hail and locally damaging winds are
   forecast over parts of the northern Plains Friday afternoon and
   evening. Sporadic damaging gusts may also occur over parts of the
   Mid Atlantic and Southeast.

   ...Synopsis...
   A low amplitude trough will move across the northern Rockies and
   into the northern Plains on Friday, with 40+ kt 500 mb winds into
   the Dakotas. As this occurs, a surface trough will develop over the
   western Dakotas, providing a focus for thunderstorms during the day.
   To the east, a weaker wave will move from lower MI into the lower
   Great Lakes, with a surface low enhancing convergence/lift. The air
   mass will remain moist and unstable over much of the central and
   eastern CONUS, supporting scattered storms over much of the area.
   The strongest instability is expected over the northern Plains in
   advance of the upper system. Otherwise, a weak upper low will remain
   over GA/FL providing cool midlevel temperatures and aiding daytime
   storm development.

   ...Northern Plains...
   Strong heating will lead to an uncapped air mass within the surface
   trough, with scattered areas of storms developing from northeast CO
   into western NE and from the western into the central Dakotas.
   Supercells are most likely across the Dakotas beneath the stronger
   flow aloft, with the strongest cells producing very large hail and
   perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south across NE, CO and KS, deep
   mixed layers should favor strong outflow and localized wind damage.
   Storms may increase again during the evening over eastern ND and
   northern MN with increasing southwest flow at 850 mb late. 

   ...Southeast and Mid Atlantic...
   A weak surface trough will develop from VA across the Carolinas and
   into GA with strong heating. A moist and unstable air mass will
   again favor areas of thunderstorms beneath the upper ridge. Lapse
   rates aloft and therefore total instability will not be as strong as
   previous days, but widely scattered strong to damaging gusts may
   still occur during the afternoon across the entire region.

   ..Jewell.. 06/26/2025

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